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20 New Hampshire Districts Hit All-Time Low Graduation Rates in 2025

Wed, 08 Apr 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Something went wrong across New Hampshire in 2025 — not in one district, not in one region, but everywhere.

Twenty districts posted their lowest four-year graduation rate in at least 11 years of available data, a surge in all-time lows that cut across geography, wealth, and district size. The list includes the state capital (Concord^↗, 73.0 percent), the second-largest city (Nashua^↗, 82.3 percent), and a string of affluent suburbs — Bedford^↗ at 87.8 percent, Londonderry^↗ at 87.8 percent, Goffstown^↗ at 87.7 percent — that had never dipped this low.

This happened in a year when the state's dropout rate fell to its lowest level on record: 2.2 percent.

Where the Lows Hit

The 20 districts at all-time low are all traditional public school districts — not a single charter school appears on the list, though several charters carry far lower rates. What unifies the all-time-low districts is that 2025 represented a break from their own history, not that they are the state's worst performers in absolute terms.

Farmington^↗, at 70.7 percent with a 58-student cohort, posted the lowest rate among traditional districts at all-time low. Hudson^↗, a southern New Hampshire suburb of 254 graduates, fell to 77.6 percent. Berlin^↗, the North Country's largest community, dropped to 78.3 percent.

But the most consequential records were set by larger districts. Concord's 73.0 percent — a 9.2-point drop from the prior year — left the capital with a lower graduation rate than Manchester^↗, historically the state's weakest performer among large cities. Nashua's 82.3 percent extended a three-year decline streak that has erased a decade of progress.

The Contrast with All-Time Highs

Not every district fell. Eleven districts posted all-time highs in 2025, including Oyster River Coop^↗ at 99.1 percent, Epping^↗ at 100 percent, and Dover^↗ at 91.5 percent. Merrimack^↗ reached 91.9 percent and Windham^↗ hit 96.6 percent.

But the math is lopsided. For every district that reached a new peak in 2025, roughly two hit a new floor. In most prior years, the ratio was closer to even. The 2021 COVID year, when the state's overall rate dipped to 87.1 percent, produced fewer all-time lows than 2025.

Suburban Districts in Unfamiliar Territory

Perhaps the most striking feature of the 2025 data is where the new lows appeared. Bedford and Londonderry are communities where median household incomes exceed $100,000, school funding is abundant, and graduation has historically been all but guaranteed. Bedford peaked at 97.8 percent in 2017. Londonderry peaked at 96.4 percent the same year. Both have fallen roughly 10 points from those peaks — a decline that would be alarming in any district, but is shocking in communities with these resources.

Goffstown, another southern New Hampshire suburb, dropped to 87.7 percent from a peak of 95.2 percent. Fall Mountain Regional fell to 83.2 percent. Pembroke hit 82.6 percent.

The pattern suggests that whatever drove the 2025 reversal — and the data cannot isolate a single cause — was not confined to under-resourced districts. It reached into communities where the educational infrastructure is, by any measure, strong.

The Missing Explanation

New Hampshire's graduation data lacks the demographic breakdowns that would help explain why 2025 was different. The state does not report graduation rates by race, income status, English proficiency, or disability designation at the district level. All we can say is that the dropout rate reached a historic low while the graduation rate also dropped, meaning the "unaccounted" population — students who were still enrolled, transferred, or earned a HiSET equivalency — grew to its largest share.

Whether the 20 all-time lows reflect a cohort-specific composition effect, the lagged impact of pandemic-era learning disruptions finally reaching the senior year, or something else entirely is a question the data raises but cannot answer.

The New Hampshire Department of Education did not respond to a request for comment.

Data Source

This analysis uses four-year adjusted cohort graduation rate data from the New Hampshire Department of Education, covering the graduating classes of 2015 through 2025. A district is classified as "at all-time low" if its 2025 rate equals its minimum rate across all available years, with at least three years of data required.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

Bedford and Londonderry: Affluent Suburbs Join the Graduation Slide

Wed, 18 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

When graduation rates decline, the assumption is that the damage concentrates in under-resourced districts — cities with high poverty, thin tax bases, and the chronic challenges that come with both. New Hampshire's 2025 data breaks that assumption.

Bedford^↗ hit 87.8 percent, an all-time low. Londonderry^↗ hit 87.8 percent, also an all-time low. These are not struggling communities. They are among New Hampshire's wealthiest suburbs, places where median household incomes exceed $100,000, school funding is among the state's highest, and graduation had been virtually guaranteed for most of the past decade.

A 10-Point Decline

The scale of the decline is striking. Bedford peaked at 97.8 percent in 2017 — a rate that meant just 7 students in a cohort of 318 failed to graduate on time. By 2025, that rate had fallen to 87.8 percent with a 337-student cohort, meaning roughly 41 students did not finish. The decline from peak to current: 10.0 percentage points.

Londonderry's trajectory is nearly identical. The district peaked at 96.4 percent in 2017 and fell to 87.8 percent in 2025, a 8.6-point decline. Both districts dropped roughly 7.5 points from 2024 alone — the sharpest single-year decline either has ever recorded.

Not Just Two Districts

Bedford and Londonderry are the most prominent examples, but the suburban slide extends further. Among southern New Hampshire suburbs:

Goffstown^↗: peaked at 95.2 percent, now at 87.7 percent (all-time low)
Hudson^↗: peaked at 93.8 percent, now at 77.6 percent (all-time low)
Salem^↗: peaked at 95.7 percent, now at 89.1 percent

Not every suburb declined. Windham^↗ posted 96.6 percent in 2025, near its all-time high. Merrimack^↗ reached 91.9 percent, also a record. The pattern is not universal suburban failure — it is a significant subset of communities that were near the top now converging toward the state average.

What Affluence Does Not Protect Against

The suburban decline in 2025 is notable because it removes the most obvious explanations for low graduation rates. These districts do not lack funding. Their students are not, on average, facing the concentrated poverty that characterizes Manchester or Franklin. Their school facilities are well-maintained and their teacher retention is relatively high.

If funding, infrastructure, and community wealth were sufficient to maintain high graduation rates, Bedford and Londonderry would not be at all-time lows. Whatever drove the 2025 reversal — and without demographic breakdowns in the graduation data, the cause remains opaque — it reached into communities where the traditional risk factors for low graduation are largely absent.

One possible explanation is that chronic absenteeism, which doubled statewide from 13 to 24 percent between 2019 and 2023, may have penetrated suburban districts more deeply than earlier data suggested. Students who were chronically absent in 9th or 10th grade during the pandemic disruption years are now reaching their expected graduation date. If they accumulated credit deficits during those years, even affluent families and well-resourced schools may struggle to close the gap within four years.

Another possibility is cohort composition. In a district with 337 graduates, a single year with an unusually high share of students with disabilities, English learners, or other populations that historically graduate at lower rates could shift the overall number by several points. Without subgroup data, this explanation is speculative.

The Convergence Question

Bedford and Londonderry are now both at 87.8 percent — barely above the state average of 87.5. In 2017, both were roughly 8-9 points above the state. The gap between these affluent suburbs and the statewide rate has collapsed.

If the decline is temporary — a single bad year driven by an unusual cohort — the 2026 data will show a rebound. But if the decline reflects structural forces that have taken hold in suburban communities (chronic absenteeism, mental health challenges, post-pandemic disengagement), the convergence may persist. The question is whether 2025 was an outlier or a new baseline.

Bedford and Londonderry did not respond to requests for comment.

Data Source

This analysis uses four-year adjusted cohort graduation rate data from the New Hampshire Department of Education, covering the graduating classes of 2015 through 2025.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

New Hampshire's Graduation Rate Crashes 1.6 Points After Hitting 11-Year Peak

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 12:00:00 GMT

New Hampshire spent a decade inching its graduation rate upward, through a pandemic, through the nation's steepest enrollment decline, through chronic absenteeism rates that doubled. By 2024, the state had reached 89.2 percent — the highest four-year graduation rate in at least 11 years of available data, and the first time New Hampshire had cleared the 89 percent threshold.

Then the Class of 2025 happened.

The state's graduation rate dropped 1.6 percentage points in a single year, falling to 87.5 percent. It was the largest year-over-year decline in the dataset, wiping out three years of steady improvement and leaving New Hampshire barely half a point above the national average.

The Paradox: Fewer Dropouts, Fewer Graduates

The most striking feature of the 2025 reversal is what did not cause it. The state's dropout rate fell to 2.2 percent — the lowest on record. In a typical year, when graduation rates decline, dropout rates climb. In 2025, they moved in opposite directions.

The explanation lies in a category that rarely gets headlines: the students who neither graduate in four years nor formally drop out. In 2025, 10.3 percent of the cohort fell into this "unaccounted" category — students who were still enrolled beyond four years, who earned a HiSET equivalency diploma, or who transferred out of the system. That share is the highest in the 11-year dataset, up from a low of 6.1 percent in 2017.

Put differently: the four-year timeline is becoming less relevant for a growing share of New Hampshire students. They are not leaving school. They are not dropping out. They are simply taking longer, or finding alternative pathways to completion.

A Shrinking Pipeline

The 2025 reversal came against the backdrop of a cohort that has been shrinking for a full decade. The Class of 2025 had 12,980 students — down from 14,780 in the Class of 2015, a 12.2 percent decline with no interruption. Every single year produced a smaller cohort than the one before.

New Hampshire has experienced the largest enrollment decline of any state over the past two decades — 18.4 percent — driven by birth rates that fell from roughly 14,000 per year to 11,000-12,000. The shrinking pipeline means the state is producing 1,662 fewer graduates annually than it did a decade ago: 11,363 in 2025 compared to 13,025 in 2015, even though the graduation rate barely changed over that span.

The fiscal implications are real. Per-pupil adequacy funding reached a record $7,132 in fiscal year 2025, a 30 percent increase over the past decade, as fixed costs spread across fewer students.

Where the Damage Concentrated

The 2025 crash was not an urban phenomenon. Twenty districts hit all-time low graduation rates, including the state capital (Concord^↗, 73.0 percent), the second-largest city (Nashua^↗, 82.3 percent), and affluent suburbs like Bedford^↗ and Londonderry^↗ — both at 87.8 percent.

The breadth of the decline is what distinguishes 2025 from earlier dips. When the rate fell to 87.1 percent in 2021 during COVID, the damage was concentrated in urban districts. This time, the crash reached into communities where graduation had been virtually guaranteed for years.

What the Recovery Scorecard Shows

The Education Recovery Scorecard indicates that New Hampshire students remain roughly half a grade level behind 2019 performance in math and a third of a grade level behind in reading. Chronic absenteeism rates doubled from 13 percent to 24 percent between 2019 and 2023. These learning deficits may now be showing up in graduation rates — students who were in middle school during the pandemic disruptions are reaching their senior year without the credits or skills to finish on time.

Looking Ahead

The 2025 crash leaves New Hampshire at a crossroads. Its graduation rate is essentially flat over the decade — 88.1 percent in 2015, 87.5 percent in 2025 — despite enormous investment in recovery programs and a dropout rate that has been cut significantly. The growing "unaccounted" population suggests the challenge is no longer keeping students from leaving, but helping a rising share finish within the four-year window.

With the cohort projected to continue shrinking as lower birth rates work through the system, the state faces a compound challenge: fewer students entering the pipeline, and a declining share emerging with a diploma on time.

The state did not respond to a request for comment.

Data Source

This analysis uses four-year adjusted cohort graduation rate data from the New Hampshire Department of Education, covering the graduating classes of 2015 through 2025. The "unaccounted" category includes students who earned a HiSET equivalency, were still enrolled beyond four years, or transferred.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

86 NH Districts Hit Record Lows

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Manchester^↗ enrolled 11,712 students this fall. Nashua^↗ enrolled 9,501. Both are the lowest totals either district has posted in 15 years of state enrollment data. They are not outliers. They are not even unusual. In 2025-26, 86 of 193 New Hampshire districts with five or more years of enrollment history are at their lowest point in the dataset, a share of 44.8%. Only 11 districts are at all-time highs. Seven of those 11 are charter schools.

The ratio of record lows to record highs is 7.8 to 1. Decline in New Hampshire is not a pocket phenomenon confined to rural towns or struggling cities. It is the default condition.

Every major district, the same story

All 10 of New Hampshire's largest districts sit at record lows in 2026. Not eight. Not nine. All 10. Manchester has shed 3,824 students since its 2012 peak, a 24.6% decline. Nashua has lost 2,393, or 20.1%. Concord^↗, the state capital, is down 1,087 students, 22.4% below its peak.

The losses span regions and community types. Bedford^↗, an affluent suburb south of Manchester, is down 12.8%. Rochester^↗, an old mill city on the Maine border, is down 17.3%. Timberlane Regional^↗, a cooperative district serving four towns, has lost 23% of its enrollment since 2012.

Among smaller districts at record lows, the percentage losses are steeper. Farmington^↗ has lost 49.4% of its enrollment since its peak, dropping from 1,379 to 698 students. Franklin is down 36.2%. Newport has declined 35%, and Conway 30.8%.

A population problem, not a school problem

New Hampshire enrolled 190,805 public school students in 2012. By 2026, that figure had fallen to 160,322, a loss of 30,483 students, or 16%.

The decline predates COVID. It predates the expansion of school choice. It predates most policy interventions. Enrollment fell every single year from 2012 through 2020, losing between 963 and 2,843 students annually. The pandemic accelerated the slide: 8,259 students disappeared in a single year between fall 2020 and fall 2021. A brief bounce of 711 students in 2022 proved to be exactly that. The state has since lost 8,298 more students over four years.

The driver is demographic. New Hampshire recorded 11,761 births in 2024, the lowest number in modern times, down from more than 14,000 annually in the early 2000s. Fewer babies born in 2018 and 2019 means fewer kindergartners showing up in 2023 and 2024.

Reaching Higher NH, a nonpartisan education research organization, examined the 2025-26 enrollment data and concluded that the trend extends beyond public schools:

"There's nothing in the data that indicates NH public school students are fleeing for other education types."

Their analysis frames this as structural:

"The decline is not just a public school problem, but a population problem."

Keene Superintendent Robert Malay put it more plainly. "Slowing birth rates are the biggest drag on enrollment," he told the Keene Sentinel. His district, Keene^↗, dropped from 3,284 students in 2015 to 2,941 in 2026, and the decline has reduced state aid by an estimated $1.6 million.

The COVID spike and the long slide

The year-over-year pattern reveals two distinct eras of decline, with a COVID-driven chasm in between.

From 2013 through 2020, New Hampshire lost between 963 and 2,843 students per year. The losses were large but decelerating: by 2019, the annual loss had slowed to 963, the smallest in the series. Then COVID struck, erasing 8,259 students in one year, pushing 115 districts to all-time lows simultaneously.

The 2022 bounce recovered just 711 of those students. Since then, the annual losses of 2,275, 2,422, and 2,338 students have returned to the pace of 2013 and 2014, before the pre-COVID slowdown ever happened. The deceleration that characterized 2017-2019 has been erased.

The count of districts at record lows spiked to 115 during COVID, fell to 58 in 2023 as some districts clawed back students, and has now climbed to 86. Meanwhile, the number at all-time highs has collapsed from a range of 18-29 in 2016-2021 to just 11 in 2026.

Berlin's 14-year unbroken decline

One district has not gained a single student in the entire 15-year dataset. Berlin^↗, a former paper mill city in the state's North Country, has declined every year from 2012 through 2026: 14 consecutive years of losses, from 1,292 students to 959. That is a 25.8% decline with no interruption, no bounce, no year of relief.

Berlin is an extreme case, but the pattern is common across New Hampshire's northern and western communities: aging populations, outmigration of young adults, a shrinking tax base. UNH demographer Kenneth Johnson has described the state as a preview for the nation: high school and college graduates leave, retirees stay, and the median age climbs to 43.4.

Charters grow, but they are not the cause

New Hampshire's charter sector has grown 469% since 2012, from 1,097 students to 6,242. Charter schools now account for 3.89% of total enrollment, up from 0.57%.

Seven of the 11 districts at all-time highs are charter schools, including The Founders Academy (435 students), MicroSociety Academy (363), and The Birches Academy (330). Only four traditional districts, all small, are at record highs: Hollis (686), Nottingham (534), Wentworth (83), and Newington (54).

But charter growth, while real, is too small to explain the traditional sector's losses. Traditional districts have shed 35,628 students since 2012. The charter sector has added 5,145 over the same period. Even if every charter student had been pulled from a traditional school, that transfer would account for less than 15% of the traditional sector's losses.

The state's Education Freedom Account program, which provides vouchers for private school tuition, enrolled about 10,500 students in 2025-26. However, Reaching Higher NH found that the vast majority of EFA recipients were already in private or home school programs before receiving a voucher. Fewer than 500 students statewide switched from public schools to EFAs in the most recent year, representing about 0.3% of public enrollment.

What consolidation looks like in practice

When enrollment declines by a quarter over 15 years, the question becomes what to do with the buildings. Manchester, which has lost 3,824 students, faces an estimated $150 million in deferred maintenance and has received a consultant's recommendation to close four elementary schools and one high school.

At the state level, Republican legislators have proposed consolidating New Hampshire's 107 school administrative units into 12. The proposal reflects a structural oddity: even as enrollment has steadily declined, the state has added administrative units rather than consolidated them. An earlier version of the consolidation bill was voted down unanimously by the full House in 2025, but a revised proposal remains under consideration. Shrinking enrollment and fragmented governance remain on a collision course.

The entering class keeps getting smaller

New Hampshire enrolled 11,904 kindergartners in 2012. By 2026, that number had dropped to 10,727, a 9.9% decline. Given that the state recorded its lowest birth year on record in 2024, the kindergarten class of 2030 will be drawn from an even smaller pool.

Eleven districts are at all-time highs. Seven are charter schools. Four are traditional districts, all small: Hollis, Nottingham, Wentworth, and Newington. Together they enroll 1,357 students. The 86 districts at record lows enroll 101,538. That imbalance is the state's enrollment story in a single frame.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

COVID Erased Four Years of Decline in a Single Year

Mon, 29 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT

New Hampshire's public schools had been bleeding students for years before the pandemic. Between 2016 and 2020, the state lost 5,171 students across four school years, a steady trickle of roughly 1,300 per year. Then COVID hit, and the 2020-21 school year wiped out 8,259 students in a single October headcount: a 4.7% plunge that exceeded the previous four years of losses combined.

That was five years ago. The state has recovered 8.6% of what it lost.

The cliff and the long slope after it

The COVID-year loss was structurally different from every other year in the 15-year dataset. At 8,259 students, it was 2.9 times the next-largest single-year drop (2,843 in 2013). In a state where annual losses had been moderating from roughly 2,800 per year in 2013 to under 1,200 by 2020, the pandemic year broke every precedent.

A brief bounce followed. The 2021-22 school year brought back 711 students, the only positive year in the entire 15-year series. But the recovery stalled immediately: the state lost 1,263 students the following year, then 2,275, then 2,422, then 2,338. Post-COVID annual losses have erased the moderation trend that defined the late 2010s.

The result: New Hampshire enrolled 160,322 students in 2025-26. A linear projection of the pre-COVID trend (which itself was declining at about 1,800 per year) would have predicted 164,260. The state is 3,938 students below even the pessimistic trajectory it was already on.

The youngest students vanished first

The pandemic did not hit all grade levels equally. Pre-kindergarten collapsed 35.6%, falling from 4,518 to 2,908 in a single year. Kindergarten dropped 13.5%, losing 1,578 students. PK and K together accounted for 38.6% of the total loss despite representing roughly 9% of enrollment.

What happened next diverges sharply by grade. Pre-K has largely recovered: from its COVID low of 2,908, it climbed back to 4,395 in 2025-26, reaching 97.3% of its pre-COVID level. Parents who delayed preschool eventually sent their children.

Kindergarten did not come back. After rebounding partially to 11,212 in 2021-22, it has fallen every year since, reaching 10,727 in 2025-26, still 8.2% below its pre-COVID count of 11,689. The kindergarten shortfall has a different root cause: New Hampshire's second-lowest birth rate in the nation, which has dropped from roughly 14,000 annual births in the early 2000s to approximately 11,000-12,000 today. The children who should be entering kindergarten in 2025-26 were born in 2019-20, at the tail end of a decade-long birth decline.

Where the damage persists

Five years after the COVID shock, 144 of 191 districts with data for both years remain below their 2019-20 enrollment. That is a 24.6% recovery rate. Among traditional public school districts, it is worse: just 19.0% have recovered, compared to 65.2% of charter-named districts.

Not one of the 23 districts with 2,000 or more students in 2019-20 has returned to pre-COVID levels. Nashua^↗ is down 1,523 students (-13.8%), Manchester^↗ is down 1,506 (-11.4%), Concord^↗ has lost 553 (-12.8%), and Rochester^↗ is down 528 (-12.6%). Together, Nashua and Manchester account for 19.1% of the statewide loss since 2020 despite serving a combined 13.2% of students.

Bedford^↗, an affluent suburb, lost 491 students (-11.1%). Exeter Region Cooperative dropped 511 (-18.5%). Sanborn Regional fell 450 (-28.6%). The losses span geography and community type.

A demographic problem wearing a pandemic mask

The pandemic accelerated a decline already baked in. As NHPR reported in January 2022, New Hampshire's public school enrollment had fallen 18.5% over two decades before COVID arrived. The state's aging population and persistently low birth rate were already compressing the pipeline of school-age children.

COVID added three forces on top of that demographic slide. First, families pulled children from public schools during the disruption. The number of first-time homeschool registrations jumped roughly 50% in 2020. Second, the state launched its Education Freedom Account program in 2021, providing vouchers for private school tuition and other education expenses. By 2024-25, approximately 5,300 students were participating, with the program expanding to universal eligibility in 2025-26 and a 10,000-student enrollment cap.

Third, charter schools grew steadily through and after the pandemic. The charter-named sector enrolled 3,993 students in 2019-20 and 6,242 in 2025-26, a 56.3% increase, while traditional district enrollment fell 10.5%. The Virtual Learning Academy Charter School alone jumped from 349 to 478 students during the COVID year, a 37% increase, as families sought remote-learning alternatives.

Reaching Higher NH, a nonpartisan education research organization, analyzed the 2025-26 data and concluded that the decline is fundamentally demographic:

"The decline is not just a public school problem, but a population problem."

The same analysis found no evidence of a mass exodus to alternative school types, noting that enrollment patterns across public, private, and home education have remained broadly stable as a share of the school-age population.

The fiscal math of fewer students

Fewer students does not mean proportionally lower costs. Schools still need buses, buildings, and heating whether they serve 400 students or 350. As NHPR reported in November 2022, lower enrollment translates directly into less per-pupil state aid, putting local taxpayers on the hook for covering more of the rising costs.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston documented this dynamic across northern New England, finding that New Hampshire's per-pupil expenditures rose 59.8% (inflation-adjusted) since 2000, the highest increase among the three northern New England states. Fewer students, higher per-pupil costs, and a property-tax-dependent funding model create a structural mismatch that compounds with every year of decline.

Meanwhile, the state's administrative structure has moved in the opposite direction of its enrollment. New Hampshire now has more school administrative units than it did two decades ago, 105 in 2025 compared with 85 in 2005, even as enrollment has fallen steadily. Proposals to consolidate SAUs from over 100 to 12 county-based units have drawn pushback from local officials who see consolidation as a threat to community control.

What the next five years look like

The post-COVID acceleration is the most concerning pattern in the data. Before the pandemic, annual losses were moderating: from 2,843 in 2013 to 2,265 in 2016 to just 963 in 2019. The state looked to be approaching a gentler slope. After the brief 2022 bounce, losses have settled at 2,275 to 2,422 per year, erasing that moderation entirely and returning to early-decade rates of decline. The state is not settling back to its pre-pandemic trajectory.

The kindergarten pipeline offers no relief. With annual births running 2,000-3,000 below early-2000s levels, each entering cohort will be smaller than the one it replaces for the foreseeable future. State projections anticipate 1% annual enrollment declines for at least the next decade.

Before the pandemic, losses were moderating. By 2019, the annual decline had slowed to 963 students, the mildest year in the series. There was a reasonable case that New Hampshire was approaching a gentler slope. Four years of post-COVID data have erased that hope. The 2022 bounce recovered 711 of the 8,259 students lost. Annual losses since then have returned to the pace of 2013 and 2014. The moderation is gone, and so are the students.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.