Concord - EdTribune NH - New Hampshire Education Data

Only 21 Traditional Districts Are Growing

Mon, 02 Feb 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Bow gained 244 students over 15 years. That makes it the fastest-growing traditional public school district in New Hampshire, a state where 148 of 173 traditional districts have lost enrollment since 2012. Bow's gain, the equivalent of about 16 students per year, is the success story.

Across the state, the 21 traditional districts that managed to grow at all added a combined 895 students. In the same period, the 148 that shrank lost a combined 36,668. For every student gained by a growing traditional district, 41 were lost elsewhere.

A decline that predates COVID and outlasted it

New Hampshire enrolled 190,805 public school students in 2012. By 2026, that number had fallen to 160,322, a loss of 30,483 students, or 16.0%. The state has posted only one year of growth — a partial COVID bounce of 711 students in 2022 — in the dataset's 15-year span.

The decline was steady before COVID, averaging about 1,830 students per year from 2013 to 2020. The pandemic then carved out 8,259 students in a single year, the largest annual loss on record. A partial bounce in 2022 recovered just 711 of those students, and the decline resumed immediately. Over the three most recent years (2024-2026), the state has averaged a loss of 2,345 students annually, 28% faster than the pre-COVID pace.

That acceleration matters. Before COVID, districts could adjust through attrition. The current pace outstrips natural staff turnover, forcing active cuts.

The win-loss ledger keeps getting worse

In 2022, the post-COVID rebound year, only 47% of traditional districts were declining. By 2026, that figure had climbed back to 71%. The respite is over. Among traditional districts, the share losing students in any given year has never dropped below 46% during the entire 15-year period and has exceeded 60% in 10 of 14 measured years.

The 2026 numbers are particularly stark at the top of the size distribution. Among the 24 traditional districts that started with 2,000 or more students, 23 have shrunk, a 96% decline rate. Among those with 1,000 to 1,999 students, 35 of 37 lost enrollment, or 95%. The pattern loosens only at the smallest scale: districts under 500 students declined at a 78% rate, partly because small-enrollment fluctuations of a few students can register as growth.

Who is growing, and how little it matters

The 21 traditional districts that gained enrollment are overwhelmingly small. Seven started with fewer than 100 students, where a single family moving in can swing the count. Only six started with 500 or more: Bow (+244), Windham (+202), Oyster River Coop (+70), Auburn (+64), Hollis (+56), and Nottingham (+26).

Bow and Windham, both suburban communities in southern New Hampshire within commuting distance of the Massachusetts border, account for half the total gain. Oyster River Coop, home to the University of New Hampshire in Durham, added 70.

The charter sector tells a different story. Of 41 charter-named districts in the data, 33 grew, adding a combined 3,222 students. Virtual Learning Academy Charter School alone added 476. Charter enrollment rose from 1,097 students (0.6% share) in 2012 to 6,242 (3.9%) in 2026, growing every single year.

But charter growth does not change the demographic math. Even if every charter student had stayed in a traditional district, the state would still have lost more than 25,000 students.

The cities are hollowing out

Manchester^↗ lost 3,824 students since 2012, a 24.6% decline. That single district accounts for more than 10% of all traditional district losses statewide. Nashua^↗ lost 2,393, a 20.1% drop. Together, the state's two largest cities shed 6,217 students, nearly as many students as the entire charter sector enrolled in 2026.

The damage extends well beyond the cities. Hudson lost 1,177 (29.0%). Concord^↗, the state capital, lost 1,087 (22.4%). Londonderry, Timberlane Regional, Salem, Milford, Exeter Region Cooperative, and Merrimack each lost more than 800.

On a percentage basis, the steepest declines hit mid-sized communities that lack both the suburban appeal of a Bow and the urban institutional anchors of a Manchester. Farmington^↗ lost 49.4% of its enrollment, falling from 1,379 to 698. Sanborn Regional lost 38.1%. Franklin lost 36.2%.

Five districts have been declining for a decade or more without interruption: Berlin^↗ for 14 consecutive years, Dover and Exeter Region Cooperative for 11 each, Rochester for 11, and Conway for 10.

Births, not departures

The primary driver is demographic. New Hampshire's birth rate fell from 14,565 in 2004 to 11,397 in 2024, a 22% drop that feeds directly into smaller kindergarten cohorts. The state's total population of residents under 18 has fallen 17% since its peak in 2000, a loss of 53,000 children.

Keene^↗ Superintendent Robert Malay captured the dynamic plainly: students switching to charter, private, or homeschool options have contributed to losses, but "to a lesser degree than birth rates."

School choice is a frequent counterargument. New Hampshire's Education Freedom Account program enrolled 10,510 students in 2025-26, nearly double the prior year, after the state removed income eligibility caps in June 2025. But 96.7% of EFA recipients were already in a private or homeschool setting before enrolling, meaning the program mostly subsidizes existing choices rather than pulling students out of public schools.

Analysis from Reaching Higher NH reinforced this: the decline is "not just a public school problem, but a population problem," with no evidence of a meaningful shift in enrollment patterns toward private alternatives.

The fiscal math of empty seats

The fiscal impact is direct. New Hampshire provides roughly 33% of K-12 education funding, with the rest falling to local property taxes. When enrollment drops, state adequacy aid follows the students down. Fixed costs (heating buildings, maintaining buses, employing teachers under contract) do not fall at the same rate. In Keene, the superintendent estimated that declining enrollment would reduce state aid by $1.6 million, likely raising taxpayer costs to cover the gap.

The state legislature is already responding to the structural mismatch. A Republican-backed proposal would consolidate the state's 107 school administrative units into 12, one per county plus standalone units for Manchester and Nashua. Whether administrative consolidation can offset the fiscal drag of 30,000 fewer students is unclear. The cost of maintaining school buildings in Berlin (enrollment down every year since 2012) or in Farmington (half the students gone) is not administrative overhead.

The lopsided ledger

Bow added 244 students over 15 years. Manchester lost 3,824. That is the scale of the mismatch. The 21 traditional districts still growing added a combined 895 students over the entire period. The state lost more than that in four months of the 2020-21 school year. Southern New Hampshire's suburban pockets are real, but they are rounding errors against the demographic tide running through Manchester, Nashua, and the 146 other districts that keep getting smaller.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

Concord Lost One in Five Students Since 2012

Mon, 26 Jan 2026 12:00:00 GMT

The city of Concord has gained nearly 2,000 residents since 2014. Its school district has lost more than 1,000 students in roughly the same period. That divergence (a growing city with a shrinking school system) is the defining fiscal reality for New Hampshire's capital.

Concord^↗ enrolled 4,842 students in 2011-12. By fall 2025, the October headcount had fallen to 3,755, a loss of 1,087 students, or 22.4%. The district has declined in 13 of the past 14 years. The sole exception: a gain of four students in 2021-22, immediately after COVID's deepest losses, before the decline resumed.

Three phases of loss

The decline came in waves, each larger than the last.

From 2012 to 2018, Concord lost an average of 49 students per year. The pace was noticeable but manageable, tracking modestly below the state's overall trajectory. New Hampshire as a whole fell 16.0% over the same 15-year window; Concord's 22.4% drop exceeded the statewide rate by more than six percentage points.

Then the losses tripled. From 2018 to 2021, Concord averaged 157 fewer students per year. Three consecutive years of accelerating losses, 120 in 2019, 118 in 2020, and 233 during the pandemic year of 2021, erased 471 students in a span when the district had no room to absorb them.

The post-COVID era brought no recovery. Concord sits 553 students below its pre-pandemic enrollment of 4,308, having lost an additional 324 students since the 2021-22 bounce. The average annual loss since 2022 is 81 students, slower than the crisis years but faster than the pre-2018 baseline.

Every grade band is contracting

Every grade band in Concord has shrunk since 2012, and the upper grades are falling fastest.

Concord High School enrolled 1,779 students in 2012. It enrolled 1,317 in 2026, a loss of 462, or 26.0%. Rundlett Middle School dropped from 1,014 to 756, a decline of 25.4%. The elementary schools, which feed the pipeline, fell 22.2%, from 1,694 to 1,318 across four buildings. Even kindergarten, the entry point, has slipped: average K enrollment in the most recent five years (253) is 13.4% below the 2012-2016 average of 292.

The only grade band that grew was pre-kindergarten, rising from 65 to 113 students, a 73.8% increase. That growth reflects expanded PK programming, not a demographic tailwind; the kindergarten numbers immediately downstream are falling.

The high school's 2026 enrollment of 1,317 now matches the elementary total of 1,318. In 2012, the high school exceeded the elementary schools by 85 students, with 1,779 to 1,694. The pipeline has been narrowing from the bottom up for over a decade, and smaller entering cohorts are now reaching the upper grades.

What is driving the decline

Demographics come first: New Hampshire has one of the lowest birth rates in the nation, ranking 49th out of 50, with 48.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44. Annual births in the state have fallen from roughly 14,000 in the early 2000s to around 12,000 today. Fewer children born means fewer children enrolling five years later.

But Concord's 22.4% decline is steeper than the 16.0% statewide loss, so demographics alone do not explain the gap. School choice plays a role. The Concord Monitor reported that more Concord-area families have shifted to charter schools, homeschooling, and private institutions. Concord Christian Academy, located in the city, has grown 23% since the Education Freedom Account program launched in 2021. The statewide EFA program, which provides public funds for private school tuition, doubled from 5,321 to over 10,000 participants in 2025-26 alone.

A third factor is unique to Concord. Deerfield residents voted to end their tuition agreement with Concord High School, adopting school choice instead. While some Deerfield students may still attend Concord, the guaranteed pipeline of roughly 160 tuition students is no longer assured.

A growing city, shrinking classrooms

Concord itself is not emptying out. The overall population has risen, driven by adults and retirees moving to the capital region.

"We are becoming grayer. I'm new to the state, but a lot of our high school and college graduates don't stay, so the population as a whole is older." -- John Goldhardt, Manchester superintendent, quoted in The 74

Goldhardt was describing Manchester, but the dynamic is the same across New Hampshire's urban centers. Concord's population grows because adults move in. Its schools shrink because those adults have fewer children, or none, and because the families already there are smaller than the generation they replaced.

Falling faster than its peers

Concord's 22.4% decline ranks eighth-worst among the 24 New Hampshire districts that enrolled at least 2,000 students in 2012. Only Manchester^↗ (-24.6%), Hudson (-29.0%), Milford (-30.1%), and a handful of others have fared worse in percentage terms.

The sharpest comparison is with Bow, a suburban district 10 minutes south of the capital. Bow^↗ grew 16.9% over the same period, from 1,442 to 1,686. The two districts are separated by a town line, not a border. A 39-percentage-point gap between a state capital and its immediate suburb. Statewide, 147 of 173 districts declined since 2012. Most of the 25 that grew are small suburban or charter-affiliated entities.

Budget pressure with no lever to pull

Losing students does not produce proportional cost savings. As Concord school board vice president Brenda Hastings told the Concord Monitor: "We need to make some cuts somewhere. But I have to say I would not want to start with teachers."

Salaries and benefits account for more than three-quarters of the district's general fund expenses. Losing 77 students in a single year, as Concord did in 2025-26, does not eliminate the need for a physics teacher or a school counselor. Meanwhile, fewer students means less per-pupil state adequacy aid. The district expected state aid to drop $1.9 million for the 2024-25 budget, roughly 8%.

New Hampshire provides only 33% of K-12 funding statewide, the lowest state share in the country, with 61% coming from local property taxpayers. For a district losing students and state aid simultaneously, the remaining option is to ask property taxpayers to cover the gap, in a state with no income or sales tax.

The pipeline question

Rundlett Middle School's enrollment of 756 is the lowest since the dataset begins. The school board is weighing a new middle school building designed for 900 students, a capacity bet that rests on the assumption that migration will eventually replenish what birth rates cannot.

"Many of the people moving to New Hampshire are families mostly in their 30s and 40s. Depending on whether migration picks up, slows down, that's going to be a big factor." -- Ken Johnson, UNH demographics professor, quoted in the Concord Monitor

Kindergarten enrollment offers the nearest leading indicator. Concord enrolled 251 kindergartners in fall 2025. Those 251 children will fill the elementary pipeline through 2032 and the high school through 2038. If kindergarten cohorts continue averaging 253 rather than the 292 of a decade ago, the district's current trajectory does not bend upward. It flattens, at best, at a lower level.

Concord has institutional gravity that most New Hampshire cities lack: state government, hospitals, a university. Whether that can attract enough young families to offset the forces pulling enrollment down is an open question. Fifteen years of data suggest the answer has been no.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

86 NH Districts Hit Record Lows

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Manchester^↗ enrolled 11,712 students this fall. Nashua^↗ enrolled 9,501. Both are the lowest totals either district has posted in 15 years of state enrollment data. They are not outliers. They are not even unusual. In 2025-26, 86 of 193 New Hampshire districts with five or more years of enrollment history are at their lowest point in the dataset, a share of 44.8%. Only 11 districts are at all-time highs. Seven of those 11 are charter schools.

The ratio of record lows to record highs is 7.8 to 1. Decline in New Hampshire is not a pocket phenomenon confined to rural towns or struggling cities. It is the default condition.

Every major district, the same story

All 10 of New Hampshire's largest districts sit at record lows in 2026. Not eight. Not nine. All 10. Manchester has shed 3,824 students since its 2012 peak, a 24.6% decline. Nashua has lost 2,393, or 20.1%. Concord^↗, the state capital, is down 1,087 students, 22.4% below its peak.

The losses span regions and community types. Bedford^↗, an affluent suburb south of Manchester, is down 12.8%. Rochester^↗, an old mill city on the Maine border, is down 17.3%. Timberlane Regional^↗, a cooperative district serving four towns, has lost 23% of its enrollment since 2012.

Among smaller districts at record lows, the percentage losses are steeper. Farmington^↗ has lost 49.4% of its enrollment since its peak, dropping from 1,379 to 698 students. Franklin is down 36.2%. Newport has declined 35%, and Conway 30.8%.

A population problem, not a school problem

New Hampshire enrolled 190,805 public school students in 2012. By 2026, that figure had fallen to 160,322, a loss of 30,483 students, or 16%.

The decline predates COVID. It predates the expansion of school choice. It predates most policy interventions. Enrollment fell every single year from 2012 through 2020, losing between 963 and 2,843 students annually. The pandemic accelerated the slide: 8,259 students disappeared in a single year between fall 2020 and fall 2021. A brief bounce of 711 students in 2022 proved to be exactly that. The state has since lost 8,298 more students over four years.

The driver is demographic. New Hampshire recorded 11,761 births in 2024, the lowest number in modern times, down from more than 14,000 annually in the early 2000s. Fewer babies born in 2018 and 2019 means fewer kindergartners showing up in 2023 and 2024.

Reaching Higher NH, a nonpartisan education research organization, examined the 2025-26 enrollment data and concluded that the trend extends beyond public schools:

"There's nothing in the data that indicates NH public school students are fleeing for other education types."

Their analysis frames this as structural:

"The decline is not just a public school problem, but a population problem."

Keene Superintendent Robert Malay put it more plainly. "Slowing birth rates are the biggest drag on enrollment," he told the Keene Sentinel. His district, Keene^↗, dropped from 3,284 students in 2015 to 2,941 in 2026, and the decline has reduced state aid by an estimated $1.6 million.

The COVID spike and the long slide

The year-over-year pattern reveals two distinct eras of decline, with a COVID-driven chasm in between.

From 2013 through 2020, New Hampshire lost between 963 and 2,843 students per year. The losses were large but decelerating: by 2019, the annual loss had slowed to 963, the smallest in the series. Then COVID struck, erasing 8,259 students in one year, pushing 115 districts to all-time lows simultaneously.

The 2022 bounce recovered just 711 of those students. Since then, the annual losses of 2,275, 2,422, and 2,338 students have returned to the pace of 2013 and 2014, before the pre-COVID slowdown ever happened. The deceleration that characterized 2017-2019 has been erased.

The count of districts at record lows spiked to 115 during COVID, fell to 58 in 2023 as some districts clawed back students, and has now climbed to 86. Meanwhile, the number at all-time highs has collapsed from a range of 18-29 in 2016-2021 to just 11 in 2026.

Berlin's 14-year unbroken decline

One district has not gained a single student in the entire 15-year dataset. Berlin^↗, a former paper mill city in the state's North Country, has declined every year from 2012 through 2026: 14 consecutive years of losses, from 1,292 students to 959. That is a 25.8% decline with no interruption, no bounce, no year of relief.

Berlin is an extreme case, but the pattern is common across New Hampshire's northern and western communities: aging populations, outmigration of young adults, a shrinking tax base. UNH demographer Kenneth Johnson has described the state as a preview for the nation: high school and college graduates leave, retirees stay, and the median age climbs to 43.4.

Charters grow, but they are not the cause

New Hampshire's charter sector has grown 469% since 2012, from 1,097 students to 6,242. Charter schools now account for 3.89% of total enrollment, up from 0.57%.

Seven of the 11 districts at all-time highs are charter schools, including The Founders Academy (435 students), MicroSociety Academy (363), and The Birches Academy (330). Only four traditional districts, all small, are at record highs: Hollis (686), Nottingham (534), Wentworth (83), and Newington (54).

But charter growth, while real, is too small to explain the traditional sector's losses. Traditional districts have shed 35,628 students since 2012. The charter sector has added 5,145 over the same period. Even if every charter student had been pulled from a traditional school, that transfer would account for less than 15% of the traditional sector's losses.

The state's Education Freedom Account program, which provides vouchers for private school tuition, enrolled about 10,500 students in 2025-26. However, Reaching Higher NH found that the vast majority of EFA recipients were already in private or home school programs before receiving a voucher. Fewer than 500 students statewide switched from public schools to EFAs in the most recent year, representing about 0.3% of public enrollment.

What consolidation looks like in practice

When enrollment declines by a quarter over 15 years, the question becomes what to do with the buildings. Manchester, which has lost 3,824 students, faces an estimated $150 million in deferred maintenance and has received a consultant's recommendation to close four elementary schools and one high school.

At the state level, Republican legislators have proposed consolidating New Hampshire's 107 school administrative units into 12. The proposal reflects a structural oddity: even as enrollment has steadily declined, the state has added administrative units rather than consolidated them. An earlier version of the consolidation bill was voted down unanimously by the full House in 2025, but a revised proposal remains under consideration. Shrinking enrollment and fragmented governance remain on a collision course.

The entering class keeps getting smaller

New Hampshire enrolled 11,904 kindergartners in 2012. By 2026, that number had dropped to 10,727, a 9.9% decline. Given that the state recorded its lowest birth year on record in 2024, the kindergarten class of 2030 will be drawn from an even smaller pool.

Eleven districts are at all-time highs. Seven are charter schools. Four are traditional districts, all small: Hollis, Nottingham, Wentworth, and Newington. Together they enroll 1,357 students. The 86 districts at record lows enroll 101,538. That imbalance is the state's enrollment story in a single frame.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

COVID Erased Four Years of Decline in a Single Year

Mon, 29 Dec 2025 12:00:00 GMT

New Hampshire's public schools had been bleeding students for years before the pandemic. Between 2016 and 2020, the state lost 5,171 students across four school years, a steady trickle of roughly 1,300 per year. Then COVID hit, and the 2020-21 school year wiped out 8,259 students in a single October headcount: a 4.7% plunge that exceeded the previous four years of losses combined.

That was five years ago. The state has recovered 8.6% of what it lost.

The cliff and the long slope after it

The COVID-year loss was structurally different from every other year in the 15-year dataset. At 8,259 students, it was 2.9 times the next-largest single-year drop (2,843 in 2013). In a state where annual losses had been moderating from roughly 2,800 per year in 2013 to under 1,200 by 2020, the pandemic year broke every precedent.

A brief bounce followed. The 2021-22 school year brought back 711 students, the only positive year in the entire 15-year series. But the recovery stalled immediately: the state lost 1,263 students the following year, then 2,275, then 2,422, then 2,338. Post-COVID annual losses have erased the moderation trend that defined the late 2010s.

The result: New Hampshire enrolled 160,322 students in 2025-26. A linear projection of the pre-COVID trend (which itself was declining at about 1,800 per year) would have predicted 164,260. The state is 3,938 students below even the pessimistic trajectory it was already on.

The youngest students vanished first

The pandemic did not hit all grade levels equally. Pre-kindergarten collapsed 35.6%, falling from 4,518 to 2,908 in a single year. Kindergarten dropped 13.5%, losing 1,578 students. PK and K together accounted for 38.6% of the total loss despite representing roughly 9% of enrollment.

What happened next diverges sharply by grade. Pre-K has largely recovered: from its COVID low of 2,908, it climbed back to 4,395 in 2025-26, reaching 97.3% of its pre-COVID level. Parents who delayed preschool eventually sent their children.

Kindergarten did not come back. After rebounding partially to 11,212 in 2021-22, it has fallen every year since, reaching 10,727 in 2025-26, still 8.2% below its pre-COVID count of 11,689. The kindergarten shortfall has a different root cause: New Hampshire's second-lowest birth rate in the nation, which has dropped from roughly 14,000 annual births in the early 2000s to approximately 11,000-12,000 today. The children who should be entering kindergarten in 2025-26 were born in 2019-20, at the tail end of a decade-long birth decline.

Where the damage persists

Five years after the COVID shock, 144 of 191 districts with data for both years remain below their 2019-20 enrollment. That is a 24.6% recovery rate. Among traditional public school districts, it is worse: just 19.0% have recovered, compared to 65.2% of charter-named districts.

Not one of the 23 districts with 2,000 or more students in 2019-20 has returned to pre-COVID levels. Nashua^↗ is down 1,523 students (-13.8%), Manchester^↗ is down 1,506 (-11.4%), Concord^↗ has lost 553 (-12.8%), and Rochester^↗ is down 528 (-12.6%). Together, Nashua and Manchester account for 19.1% of the statewide loss since 2020 despite serving a combined 13.2% of students.

Bedford^↗, an affluent suburb, lost 491 students (-11.1%). Exeter Region Cooperative dropped 511 (-18.5%). Sanborn Regional fell 450 (-28.6%). The losses span geography and community type.

A demographic problem wearing a pandemic mask

The pandemic accelerated a decline already baked in. As NHPR reported in January 2022, New Hampshire's public school enrollment had fallen 18.5% over two decades before COVID arrived. The state's aging population and persistently low birth rate were already compressing the pipeline of school-age children.

COVID added three forces on top of that demographic slide. First, families pulled children from public schools during the disruption. The number of first-time homeschool registrations jumped roughly 50% in 2020. Second, the state launched its Education Freedom Account program in 2021, providing vouchers for private school tuition and other education expenses. By 2024-25, approximately 5,300 students were participating, with the program expanding to universal eligibility in 2025-26 and a 10,000-student enrollment cap.

Third, charter schools grew steadily through and after the pandemic. The charter-named sector enrolled 3,993 students in 2019-20 and 6,242 in 2025-26, a 56.3% increase, while traditional district enrollment fell 10.5%. The Virtual Learning Academy Charter School alone jumped from 349 to 478 students during the COVID year, a 37% increase, as families sought remote-learning alternatives.

Reaching Higher NH, a nonpartisan education research organization, analyzed the 2025-26 data and concluded that the decline is fundamentally demographic:

"The decline is not just a public school problem, but a population problem."

The same analysis found no evidence of a mass exodus to alternative school types, noting that enrollment patterns across public, private, and home education have remained broadly stable as a share of the school-age population.

The fiscal math of fewer students

Fewer students does not mean proportionally lower costs. Schools still need buses, buildings, and heating whether they serve 400 students or 350. As NHPR reported in November 2022, lower enrollment translates directly into less per-pupil state aid, putting local taxpayers on the hook for covering more of the rising costs.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston documented this dynamic across northern New England, finding that New Hampshire's per-pupil expenditures rose 59.8% (inflation-adjusted) since 2000, the highest increase among the three northern New England states. Fewer students, higher per-pupil costs, and a property-tax-dependent funding model create a structural mismatch that compounds with every year of decline.

Meanwhile, the state's administrative structure has moved in the opposite direction of its enrollment. New Hampshire now has more school administrative units than it did two decades ago, 105 in 2025 compared with 85 in 2005, even as enrollment has fallen steadily. Proposals to consolidate SAUs from over 100 to 12 county-based units have drawn pushback from local officials who see consolidation as a threat to community control.

What the next five years look like

The post-COVID acceleration is the most concerning pattern in the data. Before the pandemic, annual losses were moderating: from 2,843 in 2013 to 2,265 in 2016 to just 963 in 2019. The state looked to be approaching a gentler slope. After the brief 2022 bounce, losses have settled at 2,275 to 2,422 per year, erasing that moderation entirely and returning to early-decade rates of decline. The state is not settling back to its pre-pandemic trajectory.

The kindergarten pipeline offers no relief. With annual births running 2,000-3,000 below early-2000s levels, each entering cohort will be smaller than the one it replaces for the foreseeable future. State projections anticipate 1% annual enrollment declines for at least the next decade.

Before the pandemic, losses were moderating. By 2019, the annual decline had slowed to 963 students, the mildest year in the series. There was a reasonable case that New Hampshire was approaching a gentler slope. Four years of post-COVID data have erased that hope. The 2022 bounce recovered 711 of the 8,259 students lost. Annual losses since then have returned to the pace of 2013 and 2014. The moderation is gone, and so are the students.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.